Sunday, May 9, 2010

The Emergence of Rondo and a Looming NBA Upset

Rajon Rondo just submitted one of the greatest playoff games by any Celtic in my lifetime. But before gushing over how awesome he has become (my green screensaver now lists the 3 definitions of what it means to be "Rondo'd") , I’d like to confirm that I was 8 for 8 picking the 1st round of the NBA playoffs. Unfortunately, because I failed to post these predictions prior to tip-off in round 1, you’ll have to take my word for it. There were only two surprises; Atlanta’s difficulty in eliminating Milwaukee minus Andrew Bogut and Bill Simmons’ incomprehensible pick of Miami in 7 games, the most telling example yet of his pitiful transition to lazy Los Angeles fan. I would’ve bet my apartment on the C’s in round 1. Other high and lowlights: Kevin Durant continued to emerge as a force, Dirk Nowitzki cemented his status as the best player incapable of winning a big game, and Brandon Roy is unfortunately turning into Grant Hill before our eyes. Above all, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the 2001 Lakers, though not with their play but the public perception surrounding them.

They benefit from phantom fouls to such a degree that the David Stern conspiracy theories seem truly justified. They also have the most arrogant fan base ever for a team that frankly hasn’t won anything. They cruised through the league with ease on their way to the NBA’s top record, but that only goes so far. Hell the 1996 Sonics won 64 games. The media has treated this Cavalier squad with a reverence typically accorded to champions. With the best player in the world leading them this isn't a complete shock, undeserved as it is. But I’ll use this forum to repeat myself for the umpteenth time in 2010 . . . this is NOT a great team, but a good one, made very good with the late season acquisition of Antawn Jamison. They have strong shooting and size, but no real point guard. They have the scariest offensive player in the world, but a suspect coach. They defend with intelligence, but lack the requisite intensity to dominate an entire playoff. I think Lebron knows he’s leaving. I have no proof of course, merely a strong hunch. To everyone who claims he (and Dwayne Wade for that matter) is staying put, I ask the obvious: Why would he stay? James hails from Akron, and perhaps he fears the hometown perception should he bolt to the New York area. But I think he possesses a selfish drive that he hides better than say, Kobe Bryant. He wants to be King of the sport’s world and it’s time to move to the world's biggest city. They have the money to surround James with anyone and anything he wants. Cleveland has made a strong effort, but if I’m James I’m leaving. Shaq is not the answer, neither is Mo Williams. A fresh start ensures at least 3 rings, whereas I could see him wasting his prime years for the Cavs. So I’ll go on record, something I should’ve done months ago: If he wins a title in 2010, he will stay. If not, he’s gone. Wade’s choice is much, much easier unless he can’t live without the beach and pulled pork sandwiches. He can challenge Lebron for the next decade with a timely relocation to Chicago. Otherwise he will go down as the best player ever to win but a single title. I offer no exaggeration: Wade IS that good, though few non-basketball lifers would know it.

The 2nd round has been more surprising than the 1st for a few reasons. The Suns have dominated the Spurs for the first time in Steve Nash’s tenure, with a more polished half-court offense and a higher commitment to defense than his previous highlight reel teams. This series also marks the end of the Spurs, whom I’ve never discounted until now. It's officially time for San Antonio to rebuild (think the Celtics circa 1990). Whether they will is another question. The Lakers have also cruised to a 3-0 lead in round 2, leaving a very good Utah team on the verge of summer vacation. It’s tough to fault the Jazz, who have the league’s best point guard-big man tandem in Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. They’ve never matched up well with the Kobe-led Lakers, but they are one smart trade away from dominating the western conference for the next 5 years (unless Durant goes bonkers).

In the east no team has disappointed more than the Hawks, who would’ve fared better against either Cleveland or Boston. But a hungry Orlando group is crushing them. When Joe Johnson leaves this summer, it will mark a quick end to the Atlanta resurgence. Al Horford deserves better. But Orlando looks awesome and will benefit more than anyone from the likely 7-game series emerging between their competitors. The Magic are playing with purpose and a chip on their shoulder, knowing that television executives everywhere are hoping they fold before the NBA finals. The league’s dream match up would be L.A./Cleveland, allowing a fight between the world’s two best players for the 1st time since 1987, the last time Bird and Magic faced off. The runner-up scenario would be Boston upsetting Cleveland for a rematch from 2008 between the NBA’s top franchises. An Orlando/Phoenix match up would provide some entertainment and a rare opportunity for Nash & Vince Carter to get over the hump, more important for the latter. Plus Dwight Howard vs. Amare Stoudemire is intriguing. But ultimately nobody wants this match up. And if I’m Nash I’m praying Boston doesn’t advance because they have the only point guard left capable of destroying him, which brings us back to Rondo.

The newly anointed best player for the Celtics, Rondo just put together a spectacular Game 4, posting 29 points, 18 rebounds, & 13 assists, one of them a fast break behind-the-back feed to Tony Allen that fooled Lebron right out of the gym. He is the fastest open-court guard since young Jason Kidd and a constantly improving shooter as well. He drew the defense all day long, creating easy buckets for Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen (strong performance), Glen Davis, and especially Tony Allen, who for my money played his best game in a Boston uniform thus far, making timely baskets and smothering James as well as anyone has in months. But this was Rondo’s show and he was so good that he single-handedly offset a virtual no-show by Paul Pierce, who fought foul trouble and only emerged down the stretch of the 4th quarter. But I’m feeling great right now. The Celtics could easily be up 3-1 had they not blown Game 1. Furthermore they are silencing not only their critics, but the shortsighted local and national media who jumped all over the Cleveland bandwagon. I wanted Cleveland in the East semis rather than the conference finals, knowing we'd have more energy at this stage. I predicted a 7-game series when most of the country saw 5. And it wasn’t a merely a case of favoritism for my hometown boys. The bottom line: For the Cavs to win Lebron is going to need to be the best player on the floor every night. The Celtics merely need one of the big 3 to give Rondo a break every now-and-again. And something tells me Pierce is due to drop 35. He’s too proud and too talented not to make his presence felt in this series.

Beef’s crystal ball the rest of the way: A pair of hard-fought road wins (it's that competitive!) in games 5 & 6, with Boston coming through to take game 7 in Cleveland. And if I’m wrong, at least I didn’t abandon ship like the Sport's Guy.